Probabilistic AI. Deterministic Problem.
9 days ago • 6 min readProbabilistic AI. Deterministic Problem. Welcome to this edition of QuipuCFO. This week: what happens when AI meets arithmetic in Excel, why the errors are invisible, and the architectural principle that prevents them. The second article connects this to the broader question of why 40% of agentic AI projects will fail by 2027, drawing on a framework I recently published in FP&A Trends. Every Final-Year Number Was Wrong SumProduct, an Excel modeling consultancy, tested Excel’s new COPILOT...
READ POSTWhy AI Costs Up to 10x More Than Planned
23 days ago • 7 min readWhy AI Costs Up to 10x More Than Planned Most finance leaders think of AI as a software investment. You evaluate it, approve the business case, and the budget line gets set. What follows is largely an operational matter. That mental model is wrong. And it's costing organisations more than they expect. AI has a fundamentally different cost structure than any enterprise software you've managed before. Traditional software investment is front-loaded: licence fees, implementation, integration,...
READ POST80 Iterations, One Insight: Why AI Costs Work Differently
3 months ago • 6 min read80 Iterations, One Insight: Why AI Costs Work Differently Welcome to QuipuCFO Happy New Year! This newsletter helps CFOs think better about AI decisions. Each edition tests frameworks from the CFO AI Playbook against real evidence and delivers one concrete action. Kicking off 2026, I built a Finance AI Agent that turns 1,800 pages of SEC filings into executive-ready analysis in under 10 minutes. Four days, 80+ iterations, and countless failures taught me what the Playbook documents: trust in...
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